Section 2 of 4
Stablecoins & Macro Environment
· Updated daily at 15:20 UTC
How do interest rates, dollar liquidity, Fed balance sheet conditions, money supply, inflation, and risk sentiment transmit into stablecoin supply growth? This section tracks 8 macro indicators that drive the on-chain dollar regime — covering the full transmission chain from US monetary policy to crypto market structure. All series are sourced daily from FRED and Yahoo Finance, with coverage extending back to 2020.
Policy Rates & Yield Curve
Interest Rates
Short-Term Rates & Stablecoin Supply
SOFR and the FEDFUNDS regime — the foundation of the dollar rate environment. When the Fed tightens, stablecoin supply contracts as T-bills outcompete on-chain yields.
3.69%
Neutral
Real Rates
Real Interest Rates (10Y)
DGS10 minus 10Y breakeven inflation. Negative real rates drove the 2021 stablecoin expansion; positive real rates drove the 2022–23 contraction. The cleanest single-variable predictor.
+2.16%
Positive Real Rate
Yield Curve
10Y–2Y Yield Curve Spread
DGS10 minus DGS2. Inverted curves historically precede recession and a Fed pivot — a leading indicator of the rate cycle that drives stablecoin supply.
+0.39%
Normal
Dollar Liquidity & Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
Fed Net Liquidity
WALCL minus TGA minus RRP — the standard "Fed liquidity" proxy. Expansions and contractions in this measure have historically led broad risk-asset moves by 6–12 weeks.
$5.92T
Expanding
Money Supply
M2 Money Supply
M2SL year-over-year growth. M2 expansion in 2020–21 coincided with the 100×+ stablecoin supply expansion. M2 contraction in 2022–23 with the contraction.
+4.88% YoY
Expanding
Inflation
US CPI Inflation
CPIAUCSL year-over-year change. The Fed's reaction function — high CPI drives rate hikes which tighten dollar liquidity. In EM markets, persistent local inflation drives dollarization demand.
+4.17% YoY
Above Target
Risk Sentiment & International Rates
Risk Sentiment
VIX, Fear & Greed, HY Spread
Composite of VIX volatility, crypto Fear & Greed, S&P 500, and BAML high-yield credit spread. Risk-off regimes drain stablecoin supply; risk-on regimes fuel it.
VIX 16.2
Calm
International Rates
DM Sovereign Rates (EU/UK/JP)
EURIBOR 3M plus Germany, Japan, UK 10Y sovereign yields. Cross-currency rate differentials drive carry trade flows and the relative attractiveness of USD vs other DM currencies.
EURIBOR 2.03%
Neutral