When short-term Treasuries pay more than long-term ones, does stablecoin supply move with it?
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield less the 2-year, and its sign says whether the bond market prices long-term rates above short-term ones. It stands at +0.39% as of Sep 2026 — a normal curve, with the 10-year at 4.95% against the 2-year at 4.56% — and this page plots it against stablecoin supply of $303.1B on one time axis.
The 2s10s spread is held as the constant macro signal on this page; the stablecoin indicator it is compared against is selectable from six choices. The 2022–2024 inversion was the deepest in four decades, and stablecoin supply contracted from $180B to $125B over the same window, while short-term Treasuries paid more than long-term bonds. The curve uninverted in September 2024. Notable episodes: a brief first inversion in early April 2022, the sustained inversion from July 2022, the March 2023 banking-stress shock when 2-year yields dropped sharply within days, and the deepest −108bp inversion in July 2023.
The four periods below describe how stablecoin supply moved through each Fed policy regime; supply and its 30-day change are the two comparisons that reach back far enough to show them. Switching to velocity, dominance or issuer concentration narrows the chart to Apr 2025 onward, and these descriptions no longer match what is drawn.
Through the zero-rate era the curve was positive and relatively steep: long-term rates exceeded short-term rates. Total stablecoin supply grew from about $6B to about $180B over the same period.
The hiking cycle drove 2-year yields above 10-year yields, so short-term Treasuries paid more than long-term bonds. Total stablecoin supply contracted from about $180B to about $125B over the same window as the inversion deepened.
The curve stayed inverted while stablecoin supply stopped contracting and recovered from its ~$125B trough to about $170B. The spread closed toward zero across the period as 2-year yields came down.
The spread has widened since this regime opened, from +0.09% to +0.39%. The curve is normal at +0.39%, and stablecoin supply stands at $303.1B. Whether the two are related is not something this page establishes.
The spread. 2s10s = DGS10, the 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield, less DGS2, the 2-year. Both are published each business day by the US Federal Reserve in percent per annum. The last observation is carried forward across weekends and federal holidays to produce a continuous daily series; gaps are not interpolated.
Inverted or normal. The curve is inverted when the spread is negative. That boundary is zero by definition, so unlike the band sets elsewhere on this site it is not a threshold anyone chose.
Regime bands. Set to actual FOMC meeting dates, not interpolated or estimated. They mark POLICY periods; the curve inverted and uninverted on its own schedule inside them, and the two do not line up exactly.
Comparison series and their spans. Each comparison is computed over its own full history before any window is applied.
Which compilation each figure comes from. Supply and its 30-day change are drawn on the chart from a daily supply series compiled on the same universe definition as the platform’s headline figure, so it can differ from the headline total by a fraction of a percent — two compilations of the same base concept, reconciled daily. Every current-day figure shown as text on this page is the headline figure, not the chart series’ last value.
What this page does not prove. Co-movement between the curve and any comparison series is not causation. An inverted curve is a statement about what bond markets expect, and stablecoin supply responds to many things besides that. Use the page to test the curve-transmission hypothesis under each lens, not to attribute single causes.
Updated daily. Both series are published with a one-business-day lag. See the methodology for data sources and coverage.
The 2s10s spread is the difference between the 10-year US Treasury yield (DGS10) and the 2-year Treasury yield (DGS2). A positive spread means long-term rates exceed short-term rates, a normal curve reflecting growth expectations. A negative spread, an inverted curve, means short-term rates exceed long-term rates: a closely watched recession signal, though the 2022–24 inversion was not followed by one.
When the curve inverted in 2022–24, short-term Treasuries paid more than 10-year bonds, so the risk-free alternative to holding dollars on-chain was at its most competitive at the short end. Stablecoin supply contracted from roughly $180B to $125B during this inversion period. The two are observed together; which way the causation runs, if either, is not something this page measures.
Supply and its 30-day change are compiled from a daily series beginning Nov 2017, so they cover every policy regime this page describes. Velocity, USDT and USDC dominance and the Issuer Theil Index begin Apr 2025, because each needs per-coin volume, per-coin share or an issuer mapping that the deep supply compilation does not carry.
Selecting one of those four narrows the chart to the current policy period. The regime descriptions further down are written about supply for that reason.
Curve dynamics can reach stablecoins through more than one channel. Market cap is one. Velocity records settlement intensity, USDT and USDC dominance separate the two largest issuers’ shares, the supply change records issuance flux, and the Issuer Theil Index records concentration. The selector lets each be tested against the same curve on the same axis.
The shaded bands mark distinct Federal Reserve policy periods: the zero-rate era, the hike cycle, the high-rate pause, and the current cutting cycle. They are set to actual FOMC meeting dates, not estimated. The bands are policy periods; the curve inverted and uninverted on its own schedule inside them.
As of Sep 2026, the 2s10s spread stands at +0.39%, with the 10-year at 4.95% and the 2-year at 4.56%. A positive spread means the curve has its normal slope, with long-term rates above short-term rates.
The rates page tracks SOFR, the overnight rate the Fed sets directly. The real-rates page tracks the inflation-adjusted 10-year yield. This page tracks the SHAPE of the curve, the relationship between short and long rates, which is a statement about what markets expect rather than about the level of any one rate.