US Yield Curve & Stablecoin Markets
· Updated daily
As of Jun 2026, the US 2s10s yield curve spread stands at +0.40% — 10-year Treasury yield (4.45%) minus 2-year Treasury yield (4.05%). The curve is currently Normal (uninverted). The 2s10s spread is held as the constant macro signal on this page; the stablecoin indicator it is compared against is selectable from six choices (market cap, velocity, USDT and USDC dominance, Supply Shock Index, and Issuer Theil). The 2022–2024 inversion was the deepest in four decades, coinciding with stablecoin supply contraction from $180B to $130B as institutional capital rotated to short-term T-bills yielding more than long-term bonds. The curve uninverted in mid-2024; stablecoin supply has resumed growth since. Switching the Compare-Against selector tests whether velocity, dominance, or concentration responded to the same shift, beyond aggregate supply.
Stablecoin Market Cap vs 2s10s Yield Curve Spread
Total stablecoin market cap (left axis, green) overlaid with the 2s10s spread (right axis, blue dashed). The dashed red line marks zero — below it the curve is inverted. Use the Compare against selector above to swap the left-axis indicator.
2s10s Spread — Full History with Inversion Periods
Daily 2s10s spread from Jan 2020 to present. The shaded area fills red when inverted (spread < 0) and blue when normal. The 2022–2024 inversion was the longest and deepest since the early 1980s. Regime bands mark each Fed policy period.
10Y vs 2Y Treasury Yields — The Spread Decomposed
10-year (blue) and 2-year (amber dashed) Treasury yields from Jan 2020. Inversion occurs where the amber line rises above the blue. The 2-year yield tracks Fed policy expectations closely; the 10-year yield reflects long-run growth and inflation expectations.
The four regime boxes below describe how stablecoin market cap has moved through each yield-curve regime — the most documented channel. When you switch the Compare against selector, the chart updates and the underlying mechanism shifts: velocity tests whether inversion-driven risk-off conditions reduce settlement intensity; USDT vs USDC dominance separates offshore from institutional flows; the Supply Shock Index makes the regime-by-regime issuance flux explicit; Issuer Theil reveals whether risk-off conditions consolidate market share. Use the 4-box framework as the curve-cycle backbone and switch comparisons to test which stablecoin indicator the curve signal is moving on a given day.
During the zero-rate era the curve was positive and relatively steep — long-term rates exceeded short-term rates, reflecting normal growth expectations. Risk assets including DeFi were attractive, and stablecoin supply grew from ~$6B to ~$180B (BIS WP 1068, 2023).
For macro investors: A steep positive curve is consistent with stablecoin supply expansion — institutional capital has no incentive to pile into short-term T-bills when the curve rewards duration.
The Fed's aggressive hiking cycle drove 2-year yields above 10-year yields. Institutional capital rotated into short-term T-bills yielding over 5% — more than 10-year bonds. Stablecoin supply contracted from ~$180B to ~$130B as the inversion deepened. The inversion also raised recession fears that suppressed crypto risk appetite broadly.
For CFOs: Curve inversion is a signal to review DeFi allocations — 2-year T-bills are yielding more than 10-year bonds, making short-duration cash instruments hard to beat on a risk-adjusted basis.
Despite the curve remaining inverted at its deepest levels, stablecoin supply stopped contracting and began recovering from ~$130B. Markets were pricing in future rate cuts ahead of actual FOMC action. The curve slowly uninverted through 2024 as 2-year yields declined with cut expectations.
For macro analysts: Supply recovery during still-inverted curve conditions illustrates that stablecoin allocation responds to rate expectations, not just the current curve shape. Watch 2-year yield moves as the leading signal.
The curve fully uninverted as the Fed began cutting rates in September 2024 and 2-year yields declined below 10-year yields. Stablecoin supply has resumed growth, reaching well above $200B, consistent with improved risk appetite and reduced competition from short-term instruments.
For DeFi risk teams: Curve normalisation historically precedes renewed institutional inflows — monitor collateral utilisation and redemption pressure as capital returns on-chain. For regulators: Supply expansion in a normalising curve environment is structurally driven.
Spread computation: 2s10s spread = DGS10 (10-year nominal Treasury yield) minus DGS2 (2-year nominal Treasury yield). Both series published daily by the Federal Reserve and fetched from FRED. Coverage: January 2020 – present. Denominated in percent per annum.
Inversion definition: The curve is defined as inverted when the spread is negative (DGS2 > DGS10). No smoothing or threshold adjustment applied — the raw daily spread is used.
Forward-filling: Both series are not published on weekends or US federal holidays. Missing values are forward-filled from the last available observation. Data gaps are not interpolated.
Regime bands: Set to actual FOMC meeting dates — not model-estimated. Updated within one business day when the FOMC acts.
Comparison indicators (left axis):
- Market Cap — daily sum of all tracked stablecoin market caps (CoinGecko + DefiLlama history). Coverage: Jan 2018 – present. The standard curve-transmission lens.
- Velocity — sum of daily on-chain volume (24h) divided by total market cap. Dimensionless. Higher = more transactional use.
- USDT Dominance — USDT share of total stablecoin cap. Captures offshore / non-US share.
- USDC Dominance — USDC share of total. Sensitive to curve dynamics via Circle's T-bill reserve.
- Supply Shock Index (SSI) — rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin market cap. The flux signal.
- Issuer Theil — Theil entropy of issuer market shares. Rises when issuance concentrates.
What this page does not prove: Co-movement between yield-curve regimes and any comparison series is not causation. Stablecoin indicators have many drivers (regulation, offshore demand, DeFi-specific yield, EM dollarization). Use this page to test the curve-transmission hypothesis under each lens.
Update frequency: Daily at ~15:30 UTC (FRED series published with a 1-business-day lag).