Short-Term Rates & Stablecoin Supply
· Updated daily
As of Apr 2026, SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) stands at 3.64% — Fed cutting cycle. This page tracks the US benchmark overnight rate alongside stablecoin market supply. The colored regime bands mark distinct Fed policy periods since 2020; stablecoin market cap data available from Jan 2018. During the current cutting cycle stablecoin supply has grown to $324.6B, consistent with the documented pattern (BIS Working Paper 1068, 2023) that declining rates reduce the yield advantage of traditional cash instruments relative to on-chain dollar yield. SOFR is used as the daily rate signal because the Fed Funds Rate is a monthly series that produces a misleading staircase shape when overlaid on daily data. Fed policy regimes are shown as background bands, not lines.
Stablecoin Market Cap vs SOFR — Current Rate Environment
Total stablecoin market cap (left axis, green, from Jan 2018) with SOFR as secondary overlay (right axis, dashed red). Regime bands show the active policy period.
SOFR — Daily US Benchmark Rate, Full History
Daily SOFR from Jan 2020 to present with all four Fed policy regime bands. Use this chart to orient the current reading within the full rate cycle since 2020. SOFR replaced LIBOR as the primary US overnight benchmark in 2023.
With SOFR near zero, risk-free alternatives yielded nothing. DeFi protocols offering 5–12% APY were substantially more attractive on a relative basis. Total stablecoin market cap grew from ~$6B to ~$180B during this period (BIS WP 1068, 2023).
For macro investors: Near-zero SOFR is the structural tailwind for on-chain yield. The carry trade into DeFi is most compelling when the risk-free rate is at or below inflation.
As SOFR rose from 0.05% to 5.3%, T-bill yields exceeded DeFi yields for the first time since 2018. Institutional capital rotated to money market funds. Total stablecoin market cap contracted from ~$180B to ~$130B — documented in BIS Working Paper 1068 (2023).
For CFOs and treasury teams: SOFR above ~4% has historically been the point at which T-bill allocation is unambiguously preferable to stablecoin DeFi yield on a risk-adjusted basis.
Despite SOFR remaining at its cycle high of ~5.3%, stablecoin supply stopped contracting and began recovering from its ~$130B trough. Markets were pricing in future cuts — consistent with capital responding to rate expectations ahead of actual policy moves.
For macro analysts: The supply recovery during still-elevated SOFR illustrates why rate direction and expectations matter as much as the current level. Forward rate curves are a better predictor of stablecoin inflows than the spot SOFR.
As the Fed began cutting rates in September 2024, stablecoin market cap resumed expansion reaching $324.6B. Declining SOFR compresses the yield advantage of T-bills, consistent with the documented rate-cycle transmission mechanism.
For macro investors: Rate-sensitive capital is returning to stablecoins. For DeFi risk teams: Inflow pressure increases leverage and collateral utilisation — monitor redemption pressure alongside this rate signal.
Rate series: SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate), published daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Fetched from FRED (series ID: SOFR). Coverage: January 2020 – present. SOFR is denominated in percent per annum.
Regime bands: Set to actual FOMC meeting dates — not interpolated or estimated. The four regimes (zero-rate, hike cycle, high-rate pause, cutting cycle) correspond to documented FOMC policy decisions. The Fed Regime stat box reflects the current active regime. Bands are updated manually within one business day when the FOMC acts; the current cutting cycle remains open-ended until the next policy change.
Stablecoin market cap: Daily sum of all tracked stablecoin market caps from CoinGecko snapshots (322 coins) and extended history from DefiLlama. Coverage: Jan 2018 – present.
Why not FEDFUNDS? The Federal Funds Rate is a monthly series. Displayed as a line, it produces a staircase shape that is visually misleading alongside daily SOFR and stablecoin data. The regime bands convey the same policy context without that distortion.
Update frequency: Daily at ~15:30 UTC (SOFR published with a 1-business-day lag by FRED).