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Stablecoin Supply Shock Index: Is Issuance Outpacing Demand?

· Updated daily at 15:20 UTC

As of Aug 2026, the aggregate stablecoin Supply Shock Index stands at +0.82%, classified as Normal Expansion. The SSI is the rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin supply: SSI = (market_cap[t] − market_cap[t−30]) ÷ market_cap[t−30] × 100. Values above 6% indicate a supply shock: issuance running ahead of observable transactional activity. SSI is a directional proxy, not a direct measure of demand absorption; readings should be confirmed against DeFi lending rates, peg behavior, and redemption flows. Values between 3% and 6% indicate elevated issuance. Values below 0% indicate net redemption. At present, USDTB shows the highest expansion pressure (SSI +36.78%) while USDF shows the most contraction (SSI -5.70%).

Aggregate SSI
+0.82%
Normal Expansion
Most Expanding
USDTB
SSI +36.78%
Most Contracting
USDF
SSI -5.70%
Coins Tracked
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with SSI data

Aggregate Supply Shock Index

Rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin supply. Bars above 6% (red) indicate supply shock; 3–6% (amber) elevated issuance; 0–3% (green) normal expansion; below 0 (amber) net redemption. Reacts to date toggle.

Supply Shock by Coin, Top 6

Rolling 30-day percent change in supply per major stablecoin. Lines above 6% are in supply shock territory. Reacts to date toggle.

Current SSI Rankings

Latest 30-day SSI per coin. Always shows the most recent 30-day window; does not change with the date toggle.

How to Read the SSI

SSI > 6% · Supply Shock

Supply is expanding by more than 6% per month; issuance is running ahead of observable transactional activity. The reading is a warning flag; whether it produces yield compression in DeFi or reflects new collateral demand requires confirmation from DeFi lending rates and peg behavior.

SSI 3–6% · Elevated Issuance

Monthly supply growth between 3% and 6%. Monitor for sustained growth at this pace, which often precedes shock-level readings.

SSI 0–3% · Normal Expansion

New supply is being absorbed by active settlement, collateral, and payment use.

SSI < 0% · Net Redemption

Supply is contracting: redemptions exceed new issuance. A risk-off signal.

Methodology

Formula: SSI = (Market Captoday − Market Cap30 days ago) ÷ Market Cap30 days ago × 100

Interpretation: The rolling 30-day percent change in stablecoin supply. Self-normalizing, comparable across coins of any size and across time periods.

Data: Daily market cap per coin. Aggregate SSI uses the sum of all tracked coins. Minimum 31 days of data required. See the methodology for data sources and coverage.

Update frequency: Daily at 15:20 UTC.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the stablecoin Supply Shock Index?
The SSI is the rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin supply. SSI = (market_cap[t] − market_cap[t−30]) ÷ market_cap[t−30] × 100. Above 6% signals a supply shock; 3–6% elevated issuance; 0–3% normal expansion; below 0 net redemption.
What does an SSI above 6% mean?
Stablecoin supply expanded by more than 6% over the last 30 days.
What does a negative SSI mean?
Net redemptions exceed issuance, total stablecoin market cap declined over the 30-day window. A risk-off signal.
Why use percent change rather than a volume-based ratio?
Percent change is self-normalizing and comparable across coins of any size and across time. Volume-based ratios are confounded by exchange wash trading and structural changes in trading venue mix, both of which can suppress the signal. Percent change of supply directly measures issuance pace relative to the existing market size.
Is high stablecoin issuance always a warning sign?
No. Supply expansion driven by genuine demand, enterprise treasury adoption, new payment corridors, regulatory approvals, is healthy.