Do stablecoin supplies move together? Rolling Pearson correlation of daily market capitalization percent changes, pair by pair.
As of September 8, 2026, the average 30-day correlation of daily market cap changes across the top 10 tracked stablecoins stood at +0.04, with 49% of pairs negative. The strongest pair was USDC / RLUSD at +0.56; the weakest was PYUSD / USDD at -0.34.
30-day rolling Pearson correlation of daily market cap percent changes between the top 10 tracked stablecoins, updated daily. The typical reading is near zero: at the 30-day window the average pair correlation is +0.04, with 49% of pairs negative, so supplies mostly move independently of one another. That independence is the baseline; the matrix exists to surface the exceptions. Sustained positive correlation between a pair is consistent with a shared driver, and sustained negative correlation is consistent with substitution between the two, though the coefficient alone establishes neither. Current USDT ↔ USDC 30D correlation: 0.53 (Moderate).
| Coin | USDT | USDC | USDS | DAI | USDE | USD1 | USDG | PYUSD | RLUSD | USDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDT | 1.00 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.10 | -0.15 | 0.30 | -0.19 | 0.12 | 0.49 | -0.00 |
| USDC | 0.53 | 1.00 | -0.24 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 0.18 | -0.15 | 0.01 | 0.56 | 0.11 |
| USDS | 0.32 | -0.24 | 1.00 | 0.27 | -0.03 | 0.11 | -0.27 | -0.01 | -0.14 | 0.16 |
| DAI | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 1.00 | -0.11 | 0.05 | -0.02 | 0.21 | 0.17 | -0.15 |
| USDE | -0.15 | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.11 | 1.00 | -0.14 | -0.12 | 0.13 | -0.16 | -0.11 |
| USD1 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.05 | -0.14 | 1.00 | 0.14 | -0.24 | -0.02 | 0.23 |
| USDG | -0.19 | -0.15 | -0.27 | -0.02 | -0.12 | 0.14 | 1.00 | -0.02 | -0.34 | -0.03 |
| PYUSD | 0.12 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.21 | 0.13 | -0.24 | -0.02 | 1.00 | 0.03 | -0.34 |
| RLUSD | 0.49 | 0.56 | -0.14 | 0.17 | -0.16 | -0.02 | -0.34 | 0.03 | 1.00 | 0.22 |
| USDD | -0.00 | 0.11 | 0.16 | -0.15 | -0.11 | 0.23 | -0.03 | -0.34 | 0.22 | 1.00 |
| Coin | USDT | USDC | USDS | DAI | USDE | USD1 | USDG | PYUSD | RLUSD | USDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDT | 1.00 | 0.08 | -0.05 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.21 | -0.33 | -0.03 | 0.36 | 0.07 |
| USDC | 0.08 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.32 | -0.15 | 0.08 | 0.34 | 0.01 |
| USDS | -0.05 | 0.17 | 1.00 | -0.23 | 0.06 | 0.33 | -0.07 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| DAI | 0.19 | 0.10 | -0.23 | 1.00 | 0.12 | 0.02 | -0.08 | 0.11 | 0.14 | -0.08 |
| USDE | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.13 | -0.17 | 0.12 | 0.04 | -0.19 |
| USD1 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 1.00 | -0.19 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| USDG | -0.33 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.17 | -0.19 | 1.00 | -0.03 | -0.24 | 0.22 |
| PYUSD | -0.03 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.05 | -0.03 | 1.00 | -0.03 | -0.19 |
| RLUSD | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.07 | -0.24 | -0.03 | 1.00 | 0.01 |
| USDD | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.05 | -0.08 | -0.19 | 0.26 | 0.22 | -0.19 | 0.01 | 1.00 |
| Coin | USDT | USDC | USDS | DAI | USDE | USD1 | USDG | PYUSD | RLUSD | USDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDT | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.23 | -0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.34 | -0.08 |
| USDC | 0.08 | 1.00 | 0.13 | -0.06 | 0.07 | 0.16 | -0.14 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.04 |
| USDS | 0.23 | 0.13 | 1.00 | -0.03 | -0.02 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| DAI | -0.00 | -0.06 | -0.03 | 1.00 | -0.02 | -0.12 | -0.11 | 0.05 | -0.02 | 0.06 |
| USDE | 0.01 | 0.07 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 1.00 | 0.07 | -0.03 | 0.05 | 0.07 | -0.36 |
| USD1 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.09 | -0.12 | 0.07 | 1.00 | -0.03 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| USDG | -0.09 | -0.14 | 0.02 | -0.11 | -0.03 | -0.03 | 1.00 | -0.02 | -0.16 | 0.27 |
| PYUSD | -0.00 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.12 | -0.02 | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| RLUSD | 0.34 | 0.25 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.07 | 0.01 | -0.16 | 0.04 | 1.00 | -0.08 |
| USDD | -0.08 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.06 | -0.36 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 1.00 |
Most pairs sit near zero: each coin’s supply changes are driven by its own issuance and redemption flows rather than by a common factor. This is the matrix’s normal state, and it is itself informative — a market whose constituents grew and shrank in lockstep would look very different here.
A pair with sustained positive correlation expands and contracts together. That pattern is consistent with shared drivers such as broad risk appetite, crypto market cycles, or regulation affecting all issuers at once. The coefficient records the co-movement; it does not identify which driver produced it.
A pair with sustained negative correlation tends to move in opposite directions. That pattern is consistent with substitution, holders shifting between the two coins, or with competition on shared chains and venues, but the coefficient records the opposition, not its mechanism. At the 30-day window 49% of pairs read negative, so an isolated negative reading is common; persistence across windows is what distinguishes a durable relationship from noise. This section sits outside the window blocks, so unlike the readings above it does not change with the selector.
Shorter windows react quickly to recent changes; longer windows smooth day-to-day noise. A correlation visible across all three windows has persisted for at least a quarter; one visible only at 30D has, so far, lasted less than a month. The windows measure persistence, they do not by themselves distinguish a structural relationship from a long-lived coincidence.
For each pair, daily market cap percent changes are computed over the selected window; days where either coin has no value are excluded, and the Pearson coefficient is computed on the aligned change vectors:
r = Σ[(xᵢ − x̄)(yᵢ − ȳ)] ÷ [√Σ(xᵢ − x̄)² · √Σ(yᵢ − ȳ)²]
Market caps are venue-reported market data; the matrix covers the top 10 coins by current market cap. Correlation measures linear co-movement over the window and carries no causal interpretation.
Updated daily at 15:40 UTC. See the methodology for data sources and coverage.
The matrix shows the Pearson correlation coefficient between daily market cap percentage changes for each pair of tracked stablecoins. A coefficient of +1.0 means the two coins always expand or contract together; −1.0 means they always move in opposite directions; 0.0 means no relationship. The rolling window (30D / 60D / 90D) controls how many days of data are used to compute the correlation.
Negative correlation means the two coins’ market caps tended to move in opposite directions over the window. At the 30-day window 49% of tracked pairs read negative, so a negative coefficient is a common outcome rather than an alarm.
Patterns consistent with it include holders rotating between coins and competition between issuers on shared chains, but the coefficient does not identify a mechanism. A negative reading that persists across the 30, 60 and 90-day windows has lasted at least a quarter, which narrows the candidate explanations.
For each coin pair, the matrix computes daily market cap percentage changes over the selected window (30D, 60D, or 90D). Days where either coin has a null market cap value are excluded. The Pearson formula is applied to the aligned change vectors: r = Σ[(xᵢ − x̄)(yᵢ − ȳ)] ÷ [√Σ(xᵢ − x̄)² · √Σ(yᵢ − ȳ)²].
Use 30D to see the most recent relationships and 90D to see which of them persist. A correlation strong at 30D but absent at 90D has existed for less than the longer window covers; one present at all three has held for at least a quarter. Reading all three together shows persistence, which is the matrix’s most informative dimension.