Fed Liquidity & Stablecoin Markets
· Updated daily
As of Jun 2026, the Fed's total assets (WALCL) stand at $6.72T. Net liquidity — WALCL minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) and overnight reverse repo (RRP) — is $5.92T. Regime: Expansive — net liquidity above $4.5T. Net liquidity is held as the constant macro signal on this page; the stablecoin indicator it is compared against is selectable from six choices (market cap, velocity, USDT and USDC dominance, Supply Shock Index, and Issuer Theil). Net liquidity measures the dollar liquidity actually available to the financial system, stripping out stealth drains from TGA rebuilding and excess reserve parking. Switching the Compare-Against selector tests whether velocity, dominance, or concentration responded to the same liquidity regime, beyond aggregate stablecoin supply. Data from FRED, daily from Jan 2020.
Stablecoin Market Cap vs Fed Net Liquidity
Total stablecoin market cap (left axis, green) overlaid with Fed net liquidity (right axis, blue dashed). Net liquidity = WALCL − TGA − RRP — the dollar liquidity remaining after Fed and Treasury stealth drains. Use the Compare against selector above to swap the left-axis indicator.
Fed Balance Sheet Components — WALCL, TGA, RRP
Three levers of dollar liquidity: total Fed assets (WALCL, blue), Treasury General Account (TGA/WDTGAL, amber — a drain when rising), and overnight reverse repo (RRP, orange — a drain when rising). WALCL and TGA are weekly series forward-filled to daily. Regime bands mark each Fed policy period.
The four regime boxes below describe how stablecoin market cap has moved through each liquidity regime — the standard QE/QT transmission channel. When you switch the Compare against selector, the chart updates and the underlying mechanism shifts: velocity tests whether liquid conditions translate into settlement activity; USDT vs USDC dominance separates offshore from institutional flows under different liquidity regimes; the Supply Shock Index makes the regime-by-regime issuance flux explicit; Issuer Theil reveals concentration regime shifts. Use the 4-box framework as the liquidity-cycle backbone and switch comparisons to test which stablecoin indicator the liquidity signal is moving on a given day.
The Fed doubled its balance sheet via QE. RRP rose to $2.3T but WALCL growth dominated — net liquidity surged. Stablecoin supply expanded from ~$5B to $180B as dollar demand soared across DeFi and CeFi.
The Fed began quantitative tightening — allowing assets to roll off the balance sheet. Net liquidity compressed sharply. Stablecoin supply contracted from $180B to $130B. T-bills became competitive, reducing DeFi yield incentives.
QT continued but RRP drained rapidly as money market funds moved into T-bills. Each dollar leaving RRP re-enters the financial system — a stealth liquidity injection even without QE. Net liquidity partially recovered despite a shrinking balance sheet.
RRP is now nearly exhausted — the stealth liquidity tailwind is gone. Net liquidity moves with WALCL and TGA changes only. QT pace slowed in 2025. TGA volatility (debt ceiling cycles) creates episodic liquidity injections. Stablecoin supply recovering toward new highs.
WALCL (Fed total assets): weekly series from FRED, published each Thursday. Forward-filled to daily — each daily value reflects the most recent weekly reading. Units: trillions USD.
WDTGAL (Treasury General Account): weekly balance of the Treasury's operating account held at the Fed. A higher TGA means more cash drained from the financial system. Forward-filled to daily. Units: trillions USD.
RRPONTSYD (Overnight reverse repo): daily total of RRP usage by money market funds and GSEs. High RRP = excess reserves parked at the Fed, not deployed into markets. Units: trillions USD.
Net liquidity: WALCL − WDTGAL − RRPONTSYD. Popularised by macro analysts as a cleaner measure of system-wide dollar liquidity than WALCL alone. Not an official Fed metric.
Regime bands: Set to actual FOMC policy shift dates (Mar 2022, Sep 2023, Sep 2024). Updated manually within one business day of policy changes. Current regime open-ended until next policy change.
Comparison indicators (left axis):
- Market Cap — daily sum of all tracked stablecoin market caps (CoinGecko + DefiLlama history). Coverage: Jan 2018 – present. The standard supply-transmission lens.
- Velocity — sum of daily on-chain volume (24h) divided by total market cap. Dimensionless. Tests whether liquidity translates into transactional use.
- USDT Dominance — USDT share of total stablecoin cap. Captures the offshore / non-US share of dollar-stablecoin demand under different liquidity regimes.
- USDC Dominance — USDC share of total. Sensitive to institutional flows as liquidity conditions change Circle's T-bill carry.
- Supply Shock Index (SSI) — rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin market cap. The flux signal — leading indicator under tightening or easing.
- Issuer Theil — Theil entropy of issuer market shares. Rises when issuance concentrates in fewer issuers.
What this page does not show: Individual bank reserve levels, foreign repo pool, or Fed facility-specific flows. Net liquidity is an approximation — true system liquidity depends on bank reserve distribution and credit creation dynamics not captured here. Co-movement between net liquidity and any comparison series is not causation.