When investors pay up to insure against volatility, where does stablecoin supply go?
Risk sentiment is what investors are willing to pay to insure against volatility, and this page plots it against stablecoin supply on one time axis. The VIX stands at 17.1 (Moderate, 15 to 25) as of Sep 2026, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 57 (Greed), against total supply of $302.9B.
The VIX is held as the constant risk-sentiment signal on this page; the stablecoin indicator it is compared against is selectable from six choices. Supply is only one channel: velocity, dominance and concentration each respond differently under stress, and switching the compared indicator tests which one the risk signal is moving. Notable risk-off episodes include the March 2020 COVID crash (VIX 82.7, highest since 2008), the May 2022 UST/Luna collapse ($60B wiped, VIX 34.8), the November 2022 FTX collapse (VIX 26.1, with Extreme Fear sustained 19 consecutive days), the March 2023 SVB and USDC depeg (VIX 26.5, with USDT gaining supply as holders rotated out of USDC), and the August 2024 yen carry-trade unwind (VIX 38.6). Each figure is the peak daily close in the month named.
The periods below describe how stablecoin supply moved under each risk-sentiment condition; supply and its 30-day change are the two comparisons that reach back far enough to show them. Switching to velocity, dominance or issuer concentration narrows the chart to Apr 2025 onward, and these descriptions no longer match what is drawn.
Stress episodes differ. The March 2020 COVID crash was followed by rapid stablecoin supply expansion, while the November 2022 FTX collapse saw net redemptions at the aggregate level even as traders rotated within crypto. Read each episode against the supply line rather than assuming one direction.
Moderate fear regimes, the 2022–23 hike cycle among them, sustained stablecoin supply contraction as risk-off was accompanied by high T-bill yields, a double headwind. Elevated volatility alone is not sufficient to drive stablecoin growth if T-bills offer a superior alternative.
The range the index occupies most of the time, and the one with the least to say on its own. Supply moves here are better read against the rate and liquidity pages than against volatility, which is doing little work at these levels.
During low-volatility bull runs, capital can rotate from stablecoins into volatile assets even while absolute supply grows.
The VIX. The CBOE Volatility Index (series VIXCLS), the daily close of implied volatility on S&P 500 options over the following 30 days, in index points. This page uses the daily close throughout, including for the episode figures in the lead; intraday prints run higher and are a different basis.
Crypto Fear & Greed. A daily composite score from 0 to 100 built from market volatility, momentum, social-media sentiment, dominance and search-trend data. The series here begins Jan 2020.
S&P 500. The daily closing level of the index, used as a broad equity risk proxy.
Non-publication days. None of the three market series publishes on weekends or US federal holidays. The last observation is carried forward to produce a continuous daily series; gaps are not interpolated.
Regime bands. Set to actual FOMC meeting dates, not interpolated or estimated. The current regime stays open-ended until the next policy change.
The VIX level labels. The reading beside the index is placed by boundaries at 15, 25 and 35 index points. Those boundaries are Stablecoin Beat’s own. A label states where the current reading falls in a range we have divided, not whether the level is desirable. The Fear & Greed zones are different in kind: they are published with the index itself, and this page reproduces them rather than dividing the scale again.
Episode figures. Each VIX figure in the lead is the highest daily close within the calendar month that sentence names, computed from the series drawn on this page rather than quoted.
Comparison series and their spans. Each comparison is computed over its own full history before any window is applied.
Which compilation each figure comes from. Supply and its 30-day change are drawn on the chart from a daily supply series compiled on the same universe definition as the platform’s headline figure, so it can differ from the headline total by a fraction of a percent — two compilations of the same base concept, reconciled daily. Every current-day figure shown as text on this page is the headline figure, not the chart series’ last value.
What this page does not prove. Co-movement between risk sentiment and any comparison series is not causation. Risk-off episodes often coincide with rate, liquidity and credit shocks at once, so attribution to one channel is unsafe. Use the page to identify which indicators move together under stress, not to assign single causes.
Updated daily. See the methodology for data sources and coverage.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day S&P 500 volatility implied by options prices. A VIX above 25 typically signals elevated risk aversion; above 35 indicates stress conditions.
During Extreme Fear episodes, investors often move into stablecoins as a safe-haven within the crypto ecosystem; during Extreme Greed, capital can rotate back into risk assets. Flows differ by episode — read the sentiment series against the supply chart above.
Risk sentiment transmits to stablecoin markets through multiple channels. Market cap captures the safe-haven rotation when equities sell off. Velocity captures whether risk-off conditions change settlement intensity (or just collateral parking). USDT vs USDC dominance separates offshore from institutional flows under stress. The 30-day supply change makes the regime-by-regime issuance flux explicit. Issuer Theil reveals whether stress consolidates market share. The selector lets analysts test which lens responds most to VIX and Fear & Greed.
Supply and its 30-day change are compiled from a daily series beginning Nov 2017, so they span every episode this page names and every regime band it draws. Velocity, USDT and USDC dominance and the Issuer Theil Index begin Apr 2025, because each needs per-coin volume, per-coin share or an issuer mapping that the deep supply compilation does not carry.
Selecting one of those four narrows the chart to the current policy period. The episode and regime descriptions on this page are written about supply for that reason.
The S&P 500 is the broad equity risk proxy: overlaying it against the stablecoin indicators lets you see how each behaved through equity drawdowns and rallies on the same time axis, without assuming a fixed relationship between the two.
As of Sep 2026, the VIX stands at 17.1 (Moderate, 15 to 25) and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 57 (Greed). The two measure different markets and need not agree: the VIX is implied volatility on US equity options, while Fear & Greed is a composite of crypto-market inputs.
They are Stablecoin Beat’s own boundaries, set at 15, 25 and 35 index points. A label states where the current reading falls in a range we have divided; it does not say whether the level is desirable. The Fear & Greed zones are different in kind — they are published with the index itself, and this page reproduces them rather than dividing the scale again.
The VIX, S&P 500 and Fear & Greed series on this page all begin Jan 2020. The regime bands and the episode descriptions are drawn against that span.