Risk Sentiment & Stablecoin Markets
· Updated daily
As of Jun 2026, the VIX stands at 16.2 — Moderate — normal conditions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 20 (Extreme Fear). VIX is held as the constant risk-sentiment signal on this page; the stablecoin indicator it is compared against is selectable from six choices (market cap, velocity, USDT and USDC dominance, Supply Shock Index, and Issuer Theil). Risk-off episodes have historically coincided with sharp stablecoin supply surges as investors rotate into digital dollar equivalents — but supply is only one channel. Velocity, dominance, and concentration each respond differently under stress. Switching the Compare-Against selector tests which stablecoin indicator is most responsive to VIX moves on a given day. Stablecoin data from Jan 2018. Risk data from FRED and Alternative.me, daily.
Stablecoin Market Cap vs VIX Volatility Index
Total stablecoin market cap (left axis, green) overlaid with the CBOE VIX (right axis, red dashed). VIX spikes above 25–35 signal risk-off conditions — watch for corresponding stablecoin indicator moves. Regime bands mark each Fed policy period. Use the Compare against selector above to swap the left-axis indicator.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
Daily Fear & Greed score (0 = Extreme Fear, 100 = Extreme Greed) from Alternative.me. Horizontal bands mark the five sentiment zones. Extreme Fear readings (<25) have historically coincided with sharp stablecoin demand increases as traders park capital in stable assets.
The four regime boxes below describe how stablecoin market cap has moved through each risk-sentiment regime — the safe-haven channel. When you switch the Compare against selector, the chart updates and the underlying mechanism shifts: velocity tests whether risk-off conditions reduce settlement intensity (or just park more capital); USDT vs USDC dominance separates offshore safe-haven flows from institutional T-bill rotation under stress; the Supply Shock Index makes the regime-by-regime issuance flux explicit; Issuer Theil reveals whether stress consolidates market share. Use the 4-box framework as the risk-cycle backbone and switch comparisons to test which stablecoin indicator the VIX signal is moving on a given day.
Stress episodes (Mar 2020 COVID crash, Nov 2022 FTX collapse) drive rapid stablecoin inflows as investors seek dollar equivalents without exiting crypto entirely. Stablecoin supply can surge $10–20B in days during these episodes.
Moderate fear regimes (hike cycle 2022–23) sustained stablecoin supply contraction as risk-off was accompanied by high T-bill yields — a double headwind. Elevated VIX alone is not sufficient to drive stablecoin growth if T-bills offer a superior alternative.
During low-volatility bull runs, capital rotates from stablecoins into volatile assets — stablecoin dominance falls even if absolute supply grows. Greed regimes often precede VIX spikes: complacency is a contrarian signal for upcoming risk-off episodes.
Widening HY spreads signal tightening credit conditions and risk aversion in traditional markets. Credit stress and equity stress often co-occur; both tend to precede or accompany stablecoin demand increases as investors de-risk. Data available from April 2023.
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): daily implied volatility of S&P 500 options over the next 30 days. Sourced from FRED (series: VIXCLS). A VIX above 20 indicates elevated uncertainty; above 30 is historically associated with stress or crisis conditions.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: Daily composite score (0–100) from Alternative.me combining market volatility, momentum, social media sentiment, dominance, and Google Trends data. Coverage: 2018 – present. Extreme Fear (<25), Fear (25–45), Neutral (45–55), Greed (55–75), Extreme Greed (>75).
S&P 500: Daily closing level of the S&P 500 index (series: SP500 from FRED via Yahoo Finance). Used as a broad equity risk proxy.
HY Credit Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2): ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread — yield premium of US high-yield corporate bonds over Treasuries. Sourced from FRED. Available from April 2023. Units: percentage points.
Regime bands: FOMC policy period dates. Updated manually within one business day of policy changes.
Comparison indicators (left axis):
- Market Cap — daily sum from CoinGecko (322 coins) and DefiLlama history. Coverage: Jan 2018 – present. The standard safe-haven lens.
- Velocity — sum of daily on-chain volume (24h) divided by total market cap. Tests whether risk-off conditions reduce settlement vs just parking capital.
- USDT Dominance — USDT share of total. Captures offshore safe-haven flows under stress.
- USDC Dominance — USDC share of total. Tracks institutional T-bill rotation under stress (Circle's reserve carry).
- Supply Shock Index (SSI) — rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin market cap. The flux signal under each risk regime.
- Issuer Theil — Theil entropy of issuer market shares. Watch whether stress drives concentration.
What this page does not prove: Co-movement between VIX/Fear & Greed and any comparison series is not causation. Risk-off episodes often coincide with rate, liquidity, and credit shocks simultaneously — attribution to one channel is unsafe. Use the comparison feature to identify which indicators move together under stress, not to assign single causes.