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EM Currency Stress

Last updated · daily

When 7 emerging-market currencies move against the dollar, how far and how together?

Emerging-market currencies move against the dollar together and separately, and this index averages the 30-day move of a fixed basket. As of Sep 2026 it reads -1.72% — EM recovery, dollar weakening — with TRY the most stressed component at +1.92% and KRW the most resilient at -8.25%.

The index is the unweighted mean of the 30-day move of 7 emerging-market currencies against the US dollar, currently -1.72% — EM recovery, dollar weakening. A positive reading is average depreciation against the dollar; a negative one is average recovery. Turkey (TRY) is the most stressed component at +1.92% and South Korea (KRW) the most resilient at -8.25%, and that spread is usually more informative than the average: one country in crisis can move the mean while the rest sit still. The index measures currency moves, not what anyone holds — it describes conditions under which dollar substitution is discussed rather than substitution itself.

Date range shown. The index and every component are computed over the full history from Feb 2020; this selects the window drawn.
Stress Index
-1.72% 30-day mean, 7 of 7 reporting
Level
EM recovery, dollar weakening against the dollar
Most Stressed
TRY Turkey, +1.92%
Most Resilient
KRW South Korea, -8.25%
Full Basket
89% of days carry all 7

The Index

The average 30-day move across the basket, with a hairline at zero: above it the basket has depreciated against the dollar on average, below it gained. Band edges are marked at 2% and 5% above and -1% below. The mean is taken over whichever components reported that day — all 7 on 89% of days, fewer on the remaining 185.
A positive reading is dollar strength against this basket, which is not the same as dollar strength generally. Source: Stablecoin Beat · 2026-09-04.

Each Currency

The components behind the average, each from its own start. Two of them begin later than the rest, which is why the index describes its own basket above rather than assuming it is always complete.
Lines are not drawn across a currency's missing days. Source: Stablecoin Beat · 2026-09-04.

The Basket, Component by Component

The index is an unweighted mean, so it is reproducible from this table: the 7 readings below average to -1.72%, which is the headline figure. Coverage is not uniform, and the day count is why.

Currency 30-day move vs USD Data from Days
TRY · Turkey +1.92% Feb 2020 1457 (partial)
ARS · Argentina +0.90% Feb 2020 1458 (partial)
BRL · Brazil +0.34% Feb 2020 1642
INR · India -1.48% Feb 2020 1642
THB · Thailand -2.14% Feb 2020 1642
MXN · Mexico -3.32% Feb 2020 1642
KRW · South Korea -8.25% Feb 2020 1642

Reading the Level

Four levels, placed by boundaries that are Stablecoin Beat’s own. A label says where the current reading sits in a range we have divided; it does not say whether the level is good, which depends entirely on which side of the exchange rate a reader is on.

Above 5% · Acute EM stress

The basket is depreciating more than 5% a month on average. Historically this clusters around dollar-strength episodes and synchronized EM pressure rather than single-country events, because a single country rarely moves an unweighted mean of 7 this far.

2% to 5% · Elevated

Persistent dollar strength weighing on the basket. Worth checking the component table before reading it as broad: if one or two currencies are pulling the average while the rest are stable, that is a country story rather than an EM one.

-1% to 2% · Stable

Roughly flat against the dollar on average, and the range the index occupies most of the time. Divergence inside it can still be large, which is again the argument for the component table over the headline.

Below -1% · EM recovery

The basket is gaining against the dollar. Associated with easing cycles and narrowing rate differentials, though this page measures the currency moves rather than their causes.

Methodology

The index. The unweighted mean of the 30-day percentage move of each component currency against the US dollar, computed daily. Unweighted, so a small economy counts as much as a large one — that is a choice, and it makes the index a measure of breadth rather than of aggregate EM value.

The basket, and why its size varies. All 7 components report on 89% of days; on the other 185 the mean is taken over fewer. Each component’s start and day count are in the table above and its start is in the chart legend. Comparing the index across a period where the basket changed size is comparing two slightly different measures.

Why no correlation with stablecoin supply is published here. The obvious question is whether EM currency stress drives stablecoin demand, and this page deliberately publishes no figure for it. Measured across the full series the relationship does not discriminate: supply rose after most acute-stress days and also after most recovery days, because supply grew through most of the period. Controlling for that growth removes the remainder — the great majority of acute-stress days fall in the earlier expansion phase, and within the later period the difference is negligible. A number would look like evidence and would not be, so there is none.

What this is not. Not a dollarization measure. It records what currencies did, not what residents hold; wallet-level adoption is not in this dataset. Reading it as substitution would be reading an incentive as an outcome.

The level labels. Boundaries at 5%, 2% and -1% are Stablecoin Beat’s own; no external standard divides this measure.

Updated daily. See the methodology for data sources and coverage.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the EM Currency Stress Index measure?

The average 30-day move of 7 emerging-market currencies against the US dollar. A positive reading means those currencies have depreciated on average — dollar strength; a negative reading means they have gained. It is an unweighted mean, so a small economy counts as much as a large one, and it is a level rather than a forecast.

Does EM currency stress drive stablecoin demand?

This page does not answer that, and the reason is worth stating. Measured against the supply series, stablecoin supply rose after most acute-stress days — but it also rose after most EM-recovery days, because supply grew through most of the period. Controlling for era removes what contrast remained: the great majority of acute-stress days fall in the 2020–21 growth phase, and inside the later period the difference is negligible. So the honest answer is that this index does not evidence the link, and no figure is published for it here.

Why do some currencies have less history than others?

Two of the 7 report on fewer days than the rest, so all 7 are present on 89% of days and the average is taken over fewer on the remaining 185. Each currency’s own start and day count are in the table below and in the chart legend.

What does the current reading of -1.72% mean?

As of Sep 2026 the index is -1.72% — EM recovery, dollar weakening. Turkey (TRY) is the most stressed component at +1.92% and South Korea (KRW) the most resilient at -8.25%. The spread between them is usually more informative than the average, since a single country in crisis can move the mean while the rest are stable.

Is this evidence of dollarization?

No. It measures currency moves, not what residents hold. Wallet-level adoption is not in this dataset, so the index describes conditions under which dollar substitution is often discussed rather than substitution itself. Treating it as a dollarization measure would be reading an incentive as an outcome.

Cite as: Stablecoin Beat Research, “EM currency stress,” stablecoinbeat.com/charts/em-fx/, retrieved Sep 2026.