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Research topic

Financial Stability & Systemic Risk

Systemic risk, contagion, run risk and spillovers to short-term funding markets.

High-level Recommendations for the Regulation, Supervision and Oversight of Global Stablecoin Arrangements

Financial Stability Board · 2023 · Report · Financial Stability Board

The FSB's finalised international recommendations for regulating global stablecoin arrangements.

Key findings
  • Sets 'same activity, same risk, same regulation' as the guiding principle for stablecoins.
  • Requires robust governance, redemption rights, and reserve/stabilisation safeguards for GSCs.

Stablecoins' role in crypto and beyond: functions, risks and policy

European Central Bank · 2022 · Report · ECB Macroprudential Bulletin, Issue 18

ECB assessment of stablecoin functions (trading, settlement, DeFi collateral) and their financial-stability risks.

Key findings
  • Largest stablecoins are used mainly for crypto trading, settlement and DeFi rather than real-economy payments.
  • Reserve opacity and redemption terms are key risks warranting regulation.

Stablecoins: Growth Potential and Impact on Banking

Gordon Y. Liao, John Caramichael · 2022 · Working paper · Federal Reserve International Finance Discussion Papers No. 1334

Fed staff analysis of how stablecoin growth could affect bank funding and credit, depending on reserve design.

Key findings
  • Stablecoins backed by commercial-bank deposits or Treasuries have very different effects on credit intermediation.
  • A two-tiered / narrow-bank reserve model can preserve credit while supporting stablecoin growth.

DeFi risks and the decentralisation illusion

Sirio Aramonte, Wenqian Huang, Andreas Schrimpf · 2021 · Report · BIS Quarterly Review, December 2021

BIS analysis arguing DeFi retains points of centralisation and carries familiar financial risks.

Key findings
  • DeFi exhibits a 'decentralisation illusion': governance and infrastructure remain concentrated.
  • Stablecoins are a key channel linking DeFi to the traditional financial system.

Report on Stablecoins

President's Working Group on Financial Markets, FDIC, OCC · 2021 · Policy / legal text · U.S. Department of the Treasury

The landmark US interagency report recommending that payment-stablecoin issuers be regulated as insured depository institutions.

Key findings
  • Recommends Congress require payment-stablecoin issuers to be insured depository institutions.
  • Identifies run risk, payment-system risk, and systemic risk / concentration of economic power as the principal concerns.
  • Set the template for subsequent US stablecoin legislation.

Taming Wildcat Stablecoins

Gary B. Gorton, Jeffery Y. Zhang · 2021 · Working paper · SSRN Working Paper; later University of Chicago Law Review

Argues stablecoins recreate the instability of the 19th-century 'wildcat' free-banking era and proposes regulating issuers like banks or issuing a CBDC.

Key findings
  • Privately produced money that does not trade at par 'no-questions-asked' is inherently run-prone, mirroring pre-1863 wildcat banking.
  • Recommends either bringing stablecoin issuers under bank-style regulation and insurance, or introducing a central bank digital currency.
  • Frames stablecoins as a monetary-stability question, not merely a consumer-protection one.

Stablecoins: risks, potential and regulation

Douglas Arner, Raphael Auer, Jon Frost · 2020 · Working paper · BIS Working Papers No. 905

A foundational BIS framework classifying stablecoins by design and reserve model and mapping their risks to regulatory options.

Key findings
  • Stablecoins span a spectrum from fully reserved tokenised funds to fractional and algorithmic designs, with materially different risk profiles.
  • Regulation should follow a 'same risk, same regulation' principle rather than treating all stablecoins alike.
  • Global stablecoins raise cross-border, monetary-sovereignty and financial-stability concerns beyond any single jurisdiction.

Investigating the impact of global stablecoins

G7 Working Group on Stablecoins · 2019 · Report · Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (BIS)

The G7 report that put 'global stablecoins' on the international policy agenda after Libra.

Key findings
  • Global stablecoins could pose risks to monetary sovereignty, financial stability and fair competition.
  • No global stablecoin should launch until legal, regulatory and oversight challenges are addressed.