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Research topic

Financial Stability & Systemic Risk

Systemic risk, contagion, run risk and spillovers to short-term funding markets.

Anchoring trust in money: innovation beyond stablecoins

Bank for International Settlements · 2026 · Report · BIS Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter III

The BIS's flagship annual report argues that stablecoins as currently designed fail to deliver the singleness, elasticity, and integrity of money, and that the path forward is tokenising central bank and commercial bank money on unified ledgers rather than relying on private stablecoins.

Key findings
  • Stablecoins operate without the institutional underpinnings — central bank backing, guaranteed par redeemability, and an elastic supply of liquidity — that give money its singleness.
  • Stablecoins on permissionless chains, with pseudonymity and unhosted wallets, create AML/CFT and financial-integrity gaps and regulatory-arbitrage risk.
  • Fragmentation across multiple blockchain networks undermines the interoperability and network effects needed for money-like functionality.
  • Modelling suggests the net macroeconomic effect of widespread stablecoin adoption is modest, but reserve composition matters: government-bill holdings pose different financial-stability risks than bank deposits or central bank reserves.
  • In emerging markets, foreign-currency stablecoin adoption threatens monetary sovereignty and can erode the domestic currency's unit-of-account role if substitution deepens from store-of-value into transaction settlement.
  • The recommended path is to integrate tokenisation into the regulated two-tier system via 'unified ledgers' hosting tokenised central bank reserves, commercial bank deposits, and other supervised private monies.

Stablecoins and Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

Brandon Joel Tan · 2026 · Working paper · IMF Working Paper WP/26/144, Western Hemisphere Department

A global-games model of how dollar stablecoins affect parallel FX markets under fixed or managed exchange rates: stablecoins both widen access to foreign currency and create a common public price that can coordinate runs, so their welfare effect is state-dependent — beneficial when misalignment is low, destabilising when it is high.

Key findings
  • Under rationed foreign currency, the true degree of exchange-rate misalignment is unobserved; traditional parallel markets reveal it only imperfectly because information is dispersed across private bilateral trades.
  • Stablecoins both widen access to dollar-like claims outside the official allocation system and create a visible, high-frequency common price that aggregates order flow in one venue.
  • In the model, stablecoin market depth determines the precision of a common public signal about misalignment — producing a state-dependent welfare effect.
  • When misalignment is low, access and allocation gains dominate and stablecoins raise welfare.
  • When misalignment is high, a more precise public price compresses belief dispersion and synchronises exit, so a coordination externality can trigger runs and overturn the access benefit.
  • This supports a state-contingent policy: preserve low-cost access in normal states, but use temporary, targeted measures to manage large or run-like flows when misalignment is high.

High-level Recommendations for the Regulation, Supervision and Oversight of Global Stablecoin Arrangements

Financial Stability Board · 2023 · Report · Financial Stability Board

The FSB's finalised international recommendations for regulating global stablecoin arrangements.

Key findings
  • Sets 'same activity, same risk, same regulation' as the guiding principle for stablecoins.
  • Requires robust governance, redemption rights, and reserve/stabilisation safeguards for GSCs.

Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy and Stablecoins stability

Luca Galati, Francesco Capalbo · 2023 · Journal article · International Review of Financial Analysis

The work examines the contagion effects across major digital assets during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in early March 2023. It finds evidence of contagion among major stablecoins and Bitcoin, along with significant abnormal movements in stablecoin cumulative returns and volumes.

Key findings
  • Evidence of contagion across major stablecoins and Bitcoin was found.
  • Substantial abnormal movements in stablecoin cumulative returns and volumes were observed.
  • There was a 'flight to safety' from less to more authoritative and trusted stablecoins.

Stablecoins' role in crypto and beyond: functions, risks and policy

European Central Bank · 2022 · Report · ECB Macroprudential Bulletin, Issue 18

ECB assessment of stablecoin functions (trading, settlement, DeFi collateral) and their financial-stability risks.

Key findings
  • Largest stablecoins are used mainly for crypto trading, settlement and DeFi rather than real-economy payments.
  • Reserve opacity and redemption terms are key risks warranting regulation.

Stablecoins: Growth Potential and Impact on Banking

Gordon Y. Liao, John Caramichael · 2022 · Working paper · Federal Reserve International Finance Discussion Papers No. 1334

Fed staff analysis of how stablecoin growth could affect bank funding and credit, depending on reserve design.

Key findings
  • Stablecoins backed by commercial-bank deposits or Treasuries have very different effects on credit intermediation.
  • A two-tiered / narrow-bank reserve model can preserve credit while supporting stablecoin growth.

DeFi risks and the decentralisation illusion

Sirio Aramonte, Wenqian Huang, Andreas Schrimpf · 2021 · Report · BIS Quarterly Review, December 2021

BIS analysis arguing DeFi retains points of centralisation and carries familiar financial risks.

Key findings
  • DeFi exhibits a 'decentralisation illusion': governance and infrastructure remain concentrated.
  • Stablecoins are a key channel linking DeFi to the traditional financial system.

Report on Stablecoins

President's Working Group on Financial Markets, FDIC, OCC · 2021 · Policy / legal text · U.S. Department of the Treasury

The landmark US interagency report recommending that payment-stablecoin issuers be regulated as insured depository institutions.

Key findings
  • Recommends Congress require payment-stablecoin issuers to be insured depository institutions.
  • Identifies run risk, payment-system risk, and systemic risk / concentration of economic power as the principal concerns.
  • Set the template for subsequent US stablecoin legislation.

Taming Wildcat Stablecoins

Gary B. Gorton, Jeffery Y. Zhang · 2021 · Working paper · SSRN Working Paper; later University of Chicago Law Review

Argues stablecoins recreate the instability of the 19th-century 'wildcat' free-banking era and proposes regulating issuers like banks or issuing a CBDC.

Key findings
  • Privately produced money that does not trade at par 'no-questions-asked' is inherently run-prone, mirroring pre-1863 wildcat banking.
  • Recommends either bringing stablecoin issuers under bank-style regulation and insurance, or introducing a central bank digital currency.
  • Frames stablecoins as a monetary-stability question, not merely a consumer-protection one.

Stablecoins: risks, potential and regulation

Douglas Arner, Raphael Auer, Jon Frost · 2020 · Working paper · BIS Working Papers No. 905

A foundational BIS framework classifying stablecoins by design and reserve model and mapping their risks to regulatory options.

Key findings
  • Stablecoins span a spectrum from fully reserved tokenised funds to fractional and algorithmic designs, with materially different risk profiles.
  • Regulation should follow a 'same risk, same regulation' principle rather than treating all stablecoins alike.
  • Global stablecoins raise cross-border, monetary-sovereignty and financial-stability concerns beyond any single jurisdiction.

Investigating the impact of global stablecoins

G7 Working Group on Stablecoins · 2019 · Report · Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (BIS)

The G7 report that put 'global stablecoins' on the international policy agenda after Libra.

Key findings
  • Global stablecoins could pose risks to monetary sovereignty, financial stability and fair competition.
  • No global stablecoin should launch until legal, regulatory and oversight challenges are addressed.