Where is each stablecoin on the S-curve?
Eight of the 13 stablecoins for which the model produces an adequate fit are above 75% of their estimated saturation level. Five are in the maturity phase. Across the fitted set, the average is 86.2% of saturation.
U now stands above its estimated ceiling, at 119.9% of the fitted level, with a market capitalization of $1.31B against an estimated ceiling of $1.10B, while USDT stands at 71.7% on a fit of R² 0.73. These levels should not be read as forecasts of where supply will ultimately settle. They are the saturation points implied by each coin’s growth history to date.
Logistic S-curve fitting maps each stablecoin’s market-cap history on to the conventional adoption lifecycle. The model,
f(t) = L / (1 + e−k(t−t₀))
estimates a carrying capacity L, representing the implied saturation level, a growth rate k, and an inflection point t₀ from each coin’s daily market capitalization.
The model divides the lifecycle into four stages: Early Growth, below 25% of L; Acceleration, from 25 to 50%; Maturity, from 50 to 75%; and Saturation, above 75%.
| Coin | Market cap | Estimated L | Of L | Phase | Inflection | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U United Stables | $1.31B | $1.10B | 119.9% above L | Saturation | Apr 2026 | 0.97 |
| RLUSD Ripple USD | $2.38B | $1.99B | 119.8% above L | Saturation | Nov 2025 | 0.92 |
| DAI | $4.60B | $4.63B | 99.3% | Saturation | 0.66 | |
| USD1 | $4.33B | $4.81B | 89.8% | Saturation | Aug 2025 | 0.79 |
| GHO | $0.698B | $0.784B | 89.0% | Saturation | Oct 2025 | 0.98 |
| USDS | $9.82B | $11.2B | 87.7% | Saturation | 0.79 | |
| EURC | $0.469B | $0.537B | 87.3% | Saturation | Sep 2025 | 0.91 |
| PYUSD PayPal USD | $2.77B | $3.38B | 81.9% | Saturation | Aug 2025 | 0.78 |
| USDG Global Dollar | $3.30B | $4.47B | 73.7% | Maturity | Apr 2026 | 0.98 |
| USDF Falcon USD | $1.34B | $1.84B | 72.7% | Maturity | May 2025 | 0.58 |
| USDT Tether | $183.4B | $255.7B | 71.7% | Maturity | 0.73 | |
| USDC | $74.1B | $109.0B | 68.0% | Maturity | 0.53 | |
| USDD | $1.53B | $2.57B | 59.7% | Maturity | May 2026 | 0.88 |
The fit. The logistic growth model f(t) = L / (1 + e−k(t−t₀)) is fitted to each coin’s daily market-cap history using scipy.optimize.curve_fit (Trust Region Reflective, the bounded least-squares solver). Time is normalized to [0, 1] over each coin’s data range for numerical stability. Initial guesses: L = 2× peak market cap, k = 8, t₀ = 0.5. Bounds: L ∈ [0.8×peak, 30×peak], k ∈ [0.3, 200], t₀ ∈ [−0.5, 1.5].
Candidate set. The model is fitted to the 20 largest par-pegged stablecoins by cumulative market capitalization over the tracked period, so coins outside that group are not considered.
Exclusions. Coins with R² below 0.40 are excluded, this removes declining coins (logistic does not model contraction), very new coins (<20 data points), and erratic histories. Phase thresholds: <25% = Early Growth, 25–50% = Acceleration, 50–75% = Maturity, >75% = Saturation.
Readings above 100%. A coin’s position is calculated by dividing its latest market capitalization by its fitted value of L, the model’s estimated ceiling. The figure is reported without a 100% cap. A reading above 100% indicates that market capitalization has already exceeded the level at which the fitted curve expected growth to flatten. In such cases, the model’s estimated ceiling has been overtaken by the data and the fit has become less representative of the coin’s recent trajectory.
Updated daily. See the methodology for data sources and coverage.
The adoption curve fits a logistic S-curve to each stablecoin’s market cap history. The logistic model, used in epidemiology, technology diffusion, and economics, captures the typical growth pattern: slow start, rapid acceleration, then deceleration as a saturation ceiling is approached. The output shows each coin’s current position on that curve: Early Growth (<25% of projected saturation), Acceleration (25–50%), Maturity (50–75%), or Saturation (>75%).
L is the carrying capacity, the market cap ceiling implied by the coin’s historical growth trajectory. It is not a price target or a forecast. Stablecoins can exceed their modeled L if they achieve structural adoption beyond historical trends (new use cases, regulatory approval, integration with payment rails). L should be read as the saturation implied by the current S-curve regime, not an immutable ceiling.
The inflection point (t₀) is the date when growth was fastest, where the S-curve bends from accelerating to decelerating. Before t₀, growth is compounding exponentially. After t₀, growth continues but at a slowing pace as market cap approaches L. Coins past their inflection point are in the maturity or saturation phase.
The model is fitted to the 20 largest par-pegged stablecoins by cumulative market capitalization over the tracked period, so coins outside that group are not considered.
Within that universe, a coin is excluded when the logistic model provides a poor fit, defined here as an R² below 0.40. This typically occurs for three reasons: the coin is in decline, which a standard logistic curve is not designed to model; it is too new to provide at least 20 observations; or its market-cap history is too erratic for the model to fit reliably.
Thirteen of the 20 stablecoins currently meet the threshold. Coins for which the S-curve is unsuitable may instead be better captured by the Behavioral Clustering indicator.
No. For stablecoins pegged to $1.00, price is fixed. The saturation level L is a market cap ceiling, effectively a supply ceiling, since price is constant. USDT’s current estimated ceiling of $255.7B implies the model expects USDT supply to plateau around 256 billion tokens if the current adoption trajectory continues without structural change.
A reading above 100% means the coin’s latest market capitalization exceeds the ceiling estimated from its own historical data by the logistic model. Growth has continued beyond the level at which the fitted curve expected it to flatten, leaving the estimated ceiling behind the latest observations.
The figure is left uncapped because an overshoot contains useful information about the quality of the fit. Coins that move beyond their estimated ceiling are also those for which the logistic curve is becoming a weaker description of subsequent growth. Any reading above 100% is therefore shown alongside the coin’s current market capitalization and the estimated ceiling used to calculate it.
Where the unfitted coins go A logistic curve requires a recognizable growth pattern. Behavioral Clustering groups coins according to how their market capitalization evolves, including those whose histories do not support a credible logistic fit.
Size against turnover Supply and activity need not move together. A coin may be close to its estimated supply ceiling while circulating only modestly, while another may have a much smaller supply that changes hands frequently.
Whether the unit holds while it grows Expansion matters less if the peg does not hold. The Peg Stability Score measures whether a stablecoin maintains parity as its supply and market presence increase.
The input series Each curve on this page is fitted directly to the market-capitalization history of an individual coin. Total Market Cap shows that underlying series before any modeling is applied.
Whether the ceilings are converging Coins approach their estimated ceilings at different speeds and at different points in time. Those differences help determine how market concentration develops over the medium term.
Definitions and coverage Universe definitions, the hierarchy of source authority, and the coverage rules behind the market-cap series.