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Stablecoin Supply Shock Index: Is Issuance Outpacing Demand?

As of Apr 2026, the aggregate stablecoin Supply Shock Index stands at 0.001 — classified as Demand Absorbing. The SSI measures whether new stablecoin supply is being absorbed by genuine transactional demand: SSI = 30-day supply change ÷ (average daily volume × 30). An SSI above 1.0 signals that issuance is outpacing market absorption — a pattern historically associated with yield compression in DeFi lending markets. An SSI below 0 signals net redemption pressure. At present, USDF shows the highest expansion pressure (SSI 1.445) while PYUSD shows the most contraction (SSI -0.040). Data covers 366 daily snapshots from Apr 2025 to present.

Aggregate SSI
0.001
Demand Absorbing
Most Expanding
USDF
SSI 1.445
Most Contracting
PYUSD
SSI -0.040
Coins Tracked
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with SSI data

Aggregate Supply Shock Index

Rolling 30-day SSI across the full stablecoin market. Dashed lines mark key thresholds: 0 (neutral) and 1.0 (supply shock zone). Reacts to date toggle.

Supply Shock by Coin — Top 6

Rolling 30-day SSI per major stablecoin. Coins above the 1.0 line are in supply shock territory. Reacts to date toggle.

Current SSI Rankings

Latest 30-day SSI per coin. Always shows the most recent 30-day window; does not change with the date toggle.

How to Read the SSI

SSI > 1.0 · Supply Shock

Issuance is outpacing transactional absorption. New supply is being minted faster than the market is using it. Historically associated with yield compression in DeFi lending pools and speculative issuance cycles.

SSI 0–1 · Demand Absorbing

Supply growth is within the range of transactional demand. Healthy issuance. New stablecoins are being absorbed by active settlement, collateral, and payment use — the ideal operating range.

SSI < 0 · Net Redemption

Supply is contracting: redemptions exceed new issuance. A risk-off signal. Sustained negative SSI has preceded liquidity stress in DeFi protocols and indicates holders are exiting stablecoin positions.

Methodology

Formula: SSI = (Market Captoday − Market Cap30 days ago) ÷ (Average Daily Volume30d × 30)

Interpretation: The denominator (avg daily volume × 30) represents an estimate of 30-day transactional capacity. Dividing supply change by this gives a demand-normalised view of issuance pace. Inspired by Bitcoin's stock-to-flow model, but measuring demand absorption rather than scarcity.

Data source: CoinGecko API — daily market cap and 24h volume per coin. Aggregate SSI uses sum of all tracked coins. Minimum 31 days of data required.

Known limitation: CoinGecko volume includes exchange wash trading. Volume figures may be inflated, which would compress SSI readings toward 0. Use SSI directionally and in combination with peg stability and concentration data.

Update frequency: Daily at 15:20 UTC.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the stablecoin Supply Shock Index?
The SSI measures whether stablecoin issuance is growing faster than transactional demand. SSI = 30-day supply change ÷ (average daily volume × 30). Above 1.0 signals supply shock; below 0 signals net redemption pressure.
What does an SSI above 1.0 mean?
Supply expanded more in 30 days than the equivalent of 30 days of trading volume — a classic supply shock. Persistent SSI > 1 has historically preceded yield compression on stablecoin lending markets as excess supply seeks deployment.
What does a negative SSI mean?
Net redemptions exceed issuance — total stablecoin market cap declined over the 30-day window. A risk-off signal. Sustained negative SSI has preceded liquidity stress events in DeFi lending markets.
How is the SSI different from simple market cap growth?
SSI normalises supply change by transactional volume, giving a demand-adjusted view. A coin growing supply 20% while volume doubled is less "shocked" than one growing 20% with flat volume. This mirrors stock-to-flow but measures demand absorption rather than scarcity.
Is high stablecoin issuance always a warning sign?
No. Supply expansion driven by genuine demand — enterprise treasury adoption, new payment corridors, regulatory approvals — is healthy. The SSI becomes a warning signal only when issuance consistently outpaces volume, suggesting supply is being minted speculatively rather than meeting active transactional need.