Positive Correlation (Blue)
Two stablecoins with high positive correlation expand and contract together. This happens when macro sentiment — crypto bull/bear cycles, regulatory news, or risk-on/risk-off flows — drives all issuers simultaneously. A uniformly dark-blue matrix signals that the market is macro-driven rather than issuer-specific.
Negative Correlation (Red)
Negative correlation means market cap moves in opposite directions: when one grows, the other tends to shrink. This signals user rotation between stablecoins — for example, shifting from USDT to USDC during a trust event — or structural competition between issuers on specific chains or venues.
Near-Zero Correlation (Neutral)
Correlation near zero means the two coins' market cap changes are largely independent. This typically applies to smaller coins or newer entrants whose supply growth is driven by specific chain integrations or DeFi use-cases rather than aggregate market flows. Yield-bearing tokens often show near-zero correlation as their supply grows from interest accrual.
Window Selection (30D / 60D / 90D)
Shorter windows (30D) capture recent dynamics and react quickly to regime changes. Longer windows (90D) smooth noise and reveal structural relationships. If a correlation is consistently strong across all three windows, the relationship is structural. If it only appears at 30D, it may reflect a transient market event.
What does the stablecoin correlation matrix measure?
The matrix shows the Pearson correlation coefficient between daily market cap percentage changes for each pair of tracked stablecoins. A coefficient of +1.0 means the two coins always expand or contract together; −1.0 means they always move in opposite directions; 0.0 means no relationship. The rolling window (30D / 60D / 90D) controls how many days of data are used to compute the correlation.
Why are USDT and USDC positively correlated?
Both USDT and USDC are the primary on-ramps and off-ramps for the crypto market. When risk sentiment shifts — either risk-on (crypto bull market) or risk-off (market downturn) — aggregate stablecoin demand rises or falls for both simultaneously. This macro-level sensitivity to crypto market cycles creates structural positive correlation in their market cap growth patterns.
What does negative correlation between two stablecoins mean?
Negative correlation between two stablecoins often signals user rotation — holders actively moving supply from one stablecoin to another. This can occur during trust events (e.g., a reserve audit controversy), regulatory actions specific to one issuer, or when new chain integrations drive demand for one stablecoin at the expense of another on the same chain. A sustained negative correlation is a strong structural signal worth investigating.
How is the Pearson correlation calculated here?
For each coin pair, the matrix computes daily market cap percentage changes over the selected window (30D, 60D, or 90D). Days where either coin has a null market cap value are excluded. The Pearson formula is applied to the aligned change vectors: r = Σ[(xᵢ − x̄)(yᵢ − ȳ)] ÷ [√Σ(xᵢ − x̄)² · √Σ(yᵢ − ȳ)²]. Computation runs entirely in the browser from CoinGecko daily snapshot data.
Which window should I use — 30D, 60D, or 90D?
Use 30D when you want to understand current market dynamics or recent changes in relationships between coins. Use 90D when you want to identify structural, long-run correlations that persist through short-term noise. If a correlation is strong at 30D but weak at 90D, it reflects a recent event rather than a stable relationship. Cross-checking all three windows provides the most complete picture.