What is the stablecoin market beta?

Market beta measures how much a stablecoin's market cap changes in response to total stablecoin market cap changes. β = 1.0 means the coin moves in line with the market. β > 1.0 means it amplifies market moves (pro-cyclical). β < 1.0 means it moves less than the market — defensive or counter-cyclical. Computed using rolling 90-day OLS regression of daily market cap % changes.

Why does USDT have a beta close to 1.0?

USDT represents approximately 60–70% of total stablecoin market cap. Because it dominates the market denominator, its beta is structurally anchored near 1.0 by construction. A more informative signal comes from USDC, DAI, and smaller stablecoins whose betas reflect issuer-specific dynamics rather than market composition effects.

What does a high beta (above 1.2) mean for a stablecoin?

A beta above 1.2 means the stablecoin amplifies market moves — when total stablecoin market cap grows 1%, this coin tends to grow more than 1%. This is often driven by DeFi integration momentum, exchange promotions, or speculative issuance that accelerates when market sentiment is positive. High-beta stablecoins carry higher pro-cyclical risk for policymakers monitoring financial stability.

What does a low or negative beta mean?

A beta below 0.5, or negative, means the stablecoin moves independently of or opposite to the market. Negative beta can signal user rotation — capital moving into this coin as others shrink (a flight-to-quality within stablecoins). Near-zero beta is common for yield-bearing tokens whose supply grows from interest accrual regardless of market conditions.

How is the rolling beta calculated?

For each coin, the page computes daily market cap % changes over the selected rolling window (30D, 60D, or 90D). OLS beta is β = Cov(coin_Δ%, market_Δ%) / Var(market_Δ%), where market is total stablecoin market cap. Days with null or zero market cap values are excluded. Computation runs entirely in the browser from CoinGecko daily snapshot data. Current USDC 90D β: 1.87.

Indicator

Stablecoin Market Beta market cap sensitivity

Important: This is not price beta. Since stablecoins are pegged to $1.00, price barely moves — price beta would be meaningless. Beta here is computed on daily market cap % changes, which for dollar-pegged coins is equivalent to daily circulating supply changes. It measures market share sensitivity: when total stablecoin supply grows by 1%, how much does this particular coin's supply grow? A β of 1.0 means the coin grows in line with the market. β above 1.0 means it is gaining market share faster than average during expansions. β below 1.0 — or negative — means it is losing relative share or growing counter-cyclically. As of Apr 2026, USDC carries a 90-day rolling β of 1.87 (Amplifier). High-β coins are new entrants or exchange-backed stablecoins capturing share aggressively. Negative-β coins are losing share to competitors or growing counter-cyclically via yield accrual. Stablecoin Beat tracks this as a live daily time series across 366 snapshots from Apr 2025 to present, computed in-browser from CoinGecko daily snapshot data.

USDT β (mcap)

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rolling window

USDC β (mcap)

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rolling window

Highest β

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most pro-cyclical

Lowest β

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most counter-cyclical

Rolling Market Beta — USDT, USDC, DAI

Rolling OLS β for each coin vs total stablecoin market cap, over the selected window. β = 1.0 reference line marks market-neutral. Divergence from 1.0 signals structural rotation or issuer-specific dynamics. USDT anchors near 1.0 by composition — focus on USDC and DAI for meaningful signals.

Beta Ranking — Latest Snapshot

Current rolling β for all tracked stablecoins. Red = amplifier (β > 1.2). Amber = market-like (0.8–1.2). Blue = defensive (< 0.8). Negative β = counter-cyclical rotation signal.

Mid-tier Stablecoins — Rolling Beta

Rolling β for USD1, PYUSD, FDUSD, and USDS. Mid-tier coins show more beta variance than USDT/USDC — useful for detecting ecosystem rotation and new issuance cycles.

How to Interpret Market Cap Beta

β above 1.2

Market Share Gainer

The coin's circulating supply grows faster than the total stablecoin market during expansions — it is actively capturing market share. Typical for new entrants with exchange backing, aggressive DeFi integrations, or promotional incentives accelerating issuance.

For policymakers: Rapid market share concentration risk — monitor issuer. For enterprise: Growth trajectory signal; higher redemption risk if momentum reverses.

β 0.8–1.2

Stable Market Share

The coin's market cap grows roughly in line with total stablecoin market expansion. Its share of the ecosystem is stable. Expected for large, established stablecoins in normal conditions. A sustained shift outside this range signals a structural change in competitive position.

For enterprise: Predictable, low-surprise behavior — suitable for treasury planning. For policymakers: No anomalous share concentration or rotation.

β below 0.5 or negative

Market Share Loser / Counter-cyclical

The coin's supply grows slower than — or opposite to — total market supply. Negative β means it is actively losing market share while the ecosystem grows, or gaining when others shrink (flight-to-quality rotation). Near-zero β is common for yield-bearing tokens: their supply grows from interest accrual, not minting demand.

For policymakers: Watch negative-β coins as rotation destinations during stress. For enterprise: May indicate deteriorating competitive position; verify issuer fundamentals.

Methodology

What is measured: Daily market cap % changes per coin — not price. Since stablecoins are pegged to $1.00, price barely moves. Market cap changes for dollar-pegged coins are equivalent to circulating supply changes (minting and redemptions). This beta measures how each coin's supply co-moves with total stablecoin supply.

Formula: β_i = Cov(ΔMcap_i%, ΔMarket%) / Var(ΔMarket%), where daily % changes are computed from CoinGecko market cap snapshots. Market = total stablecoin market cap across all tracked coins. Computed via rolling OLS over the selected window (30D, 60D, or 90D). Days with null or zero values are excluded.

Data source: CoinGecko API (daily snapshots). Update frequency: Daily at ~15:30 UTC. Coverage: Apr 2025 – present (366 snapshots). Computation runs entirely in the browser.

Caveat: USDT constitutes ~60–70% of the market denominator, so its beta blends genuine market sensitivity with statistical composition effects. All non-USDT coins provide the more directly interpretable market share signals.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is stablecoin market beta — and is this price beta?

No — this is not price beta. Since stablecoins are pegged to $1.00, price barely moves and price beta would be meaningless. Beta here measures daily market cap % changes: how much does a coin's circulating supply change relative to total stablecoin supply? β = 1.0 means the coin maintains its market share. β above 1.0 means it gains share faster than average during expansions. β below 1.0 or negative means it grows slower than the market or actively loses share. It is computed using rolling OLS regression of daily market cap % changes over a selected window (30D, 60D, or 90D).

Why does USDT always have a beta close to 1.0?

USDT represents approximately 60–70% of total stablecoin market cap. Because it dominates the market denominator, its measured beta blends genuine sensitivity with a statistical composition effect — it partially defines what it's being measured against. This means USDT beta requires careful interpretation and can differ significantly from 1.0 over shorter windows. The most directly informative signals come from USDC, DAI, and smaller stablecoins whose betas reflect pure issuer-specific dynamics and capital rotation patterns.

What does a high stablecoin beta (above 1.2) indicate?

A beta above 1.2 means the coin's market cap (circulating supply) grows faster than the total stablecoin market when the ecosystem expands — it is actively gaining market share. This is typical of new entrants with exchange backing or aggressive DeFi incentives. It also means the coin contracts more sharply than the market if conditions reverse. A high and rising beta is worth monitoring for concentration risk: rapid share gains by a single issuer can create systemic dependencies.

What does a negative or near-zero beta mean?

Negative beta means the stablecoin's market cap tends to grow when the total market shrinks — a classic flight-to-quality rotation signal. Capital is actively moving into this coin as others contract. Near-zero beta is common for yield-bearing tokens (sUSDS, sUSDE) whose supply grows from interest accrual regardless of broader market conditions, making them largely uncorrelated with market cycles.

Which rolling window should I use — 30D, 60D, or 90D?

Use 30D when you want to capture recent regime changes — a beta shift at 30D that hasn't appeared at 90D signals a new dynamic, not a structural change. Use 90D when you want to measure stable, structural relationships that persist through short-term noise. For policymakers and enterprise risk managers, the 90D beta is the most reliable signal; for trading and tactical positioning, 30D captures real-time dynamics.